Today something astonishing happened.

Donald Trump tweetet. 

That alone is not astonishing, he does that a lot. 

Usually he complains. Something is wrong. Always. He often complains about not being noticed the way he feels it would be adequate for his fine being and doings. Mostly “media” is responsible then. Sometimes he complains because someone criticised him. And as it is a ‘no go’ to criticise the president elect, that usually disqualifies the person or organisation daring to do so. Donald Trump makes sure via Twitter, that all world is informed about how poorly his critics do. 

Basicly Donald Trump’s tweets are a collection of negativity.

Not so today!

Today he wrote about something positive. He wrote about the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index. It has surged. And especially remarkable, he thanked himself for that.

Wow, the highest level in more than 15 years! Looks like someone worked hard for that result. 

Such a hard won thing will surely be topic to a lot of reporting today. So I went in search fot it. I found this

and this

Everything clear?

Not to me.

Trump’s number of 113,7 and the assessment, that it ‘surged’ are taken from the second picture. Sadly the data behind this is not freely accessible, you need to subscribe for a lot of money to get access to their data. But the text is free. What does this text tell me? 

The index, Trump is quoting is nothing manifested. It’s a collection of data about consumer’s assessments to economy. It’s one of many of such collections. 

It says, that people felt confident in December about consuming. It also says, that their assessment for the future is not clear yet and depends of the development of the next months.

The first chart above is from another provider of data on the same object. It shows, that the consumer’s confidence rose slowly but surely to the current point from the economic crisis in 2008. Or from the beginning of Obama’s presidency?

But back to Trumps tweet. He simply quotes, what some board published. Without naming them of course. That’s pretty poor. Why notname the source? Because he tries to generalise the statement? He tries to put it, as if this were generally something positive. 

And of course he loves the fact, that the guy who wrote this text thinks, consumers confidence in December might have to do with the election of him. Although the guy not even says, that this is a positive thing. To me it’s also a possible explanation, that people think it’s wise to consume now, before Trump is sworn in. 

But I do not know. Because I have no access to the data.

That all doesn’t bother Mr. Trump at all. He thanks himself for all the great he did, although he did exactly nothing up to now.

What do I learn from this little exercise?

I learn, that it’s safe to NEVER trust any tweets of Donald Trump. He is not correct about what he says. Not even, when he works with data.

I learn, that it’s necessary to question everything he says. 

And I learn, that he must feel very miserable. Poor guy needs to thank himself. And as he found nothing profoundly important to quote he used someone else’s opinion to make a positive tweet of it.

I further learn, that the American Nation is sitting on dynamite right now. 

A president with social skills tending towards zero, who feels that he needs to praise himself, looks like he’s a bit out of control to me. 

No great prospects for the nearer future…